Over and over again, I hear people say with complete confidence, “China will be the next world power.” Occasionally the will express sadness at the decline of the United States but continue to express confidence that soon we here in this country will be the second greatest economic power on the planet.
No, it’s not going to happen. The United States will remain the world powerhouse economic center for probably at least the next fifty years.
Why do I think this? First, the Chinese have been claiming a growth rate of 10 percent a year for the last thirty years. Very funny. I am being told that communist totalitarian state has a growth rate roughly six percent higher per year than the United States for the last forty years. The Soviet Union made similar claims. So, did the nations of Eastern Europe. How did that work out?
Since we can be totally confident that the Chinese government is cooking the books, how can we gain insight into the Chinese economy? Well, we have to use anecdotal information.
Guess what? A nineteen year old sticks a knife into the heart of a party official and becomes a local hero. The locals contend that the party official used his position for personal enrichment, stealing land and other economic possessions while having his opponents (the victims of his thefts) beaten up.
Of course, there really wasn’t any large number of sympathizers, just 20,000 or so. These people petitioned the court for leniency. The youth was sentenced to death anyway. It would set a bad precedent if you could wack a party official for corruption. Other anecdotal evidence as well as various studies says the same thing. There is an incredible amount of corruption ongoing in the “People’s” Republic of China.
But don’t just take my word for it. Take a look at this news report from AlJazeera.
Let’s be a little more skeptical about Chinese economic growth. I hear the praises of free enterprise and democracy rising to high heaven all over this country. How come we don’t apply our principles to the Chinese Communists? How come free enterprise is the best economic system in the world but they have a yearly growth rate of 10percent in a government controlled economy? Someone is lying. What’s your call?